Malta and Gozo long term forecast

August 2015 was hotter and wetter than normal.

The hottest day in August 2015 was on the 1st with a high of 37°C while the coolest night in August 2015 was on the 23rd with a low of 21°C.

A total of 38.0mm of rain were measured in August 2015 (with some localities registering even higher amounts). This was more than 5 times the mean of around 7mm making it an exceptionally wet month. August 2015 also made Summer 2015 less dry than what is normally expected. There were 6 days of rain and 3 days with lightning or thunder. However, this was not the wettest August ever recorded over the Maltese Islands.

Two major notable weather events occurred in Malta during August 2015. The first one was on the 8th when a decaying thunderstorm from the East approached the Maltese Islands. Upon finding a stretch of very warm sea (probably higher than 30°C on the eastern harbour coast), it quickly flared up to produce tropical-like heavy downpours and waterspouts. The other one was on the 16th when very rare stratiform rain (for Summer) from nimbostratus clouds fell on the Maltese Islands during the day. A daytime minimum of just 22°C was registered on the same day at 1PM.

The wind blew mainly from the westnorthwest with an average wind speed of 12 km/h. The strongest gust was of 86km/h (Force 9) on the 8th as a severe thunderstorm developed over the Grand Harbour.

The first half of the month was hotter and drier than what is normally expected as the bulk of the heavy rain on the 8th and 9th of the month had missed mainland Malta affecting Sicily and marginally Gozo instead.

The second half of the month should see temperatures decreasing and perhaps more in the way of rain showers and thunderstorms. Of course, these showers will be of a hit or miss nature as September rainfall varies widely from one location to another. 

Confidence in accuracy of forecast: temperature 80% / rainfall 90%

October is expected to be around average temperature-wise but slightly wetter with possibly one major rain event.

Mean monthly temperatures are expected to be around average with generally falling daily high temperatures, with daily highs decreasing from 28°C to 24°C over the course of the month. Daily low temperatures range from 17°C to 21°C.

The monthly rainfall total is expected to be slightly above the average of 77.2mm. Around 8 days of rain are expected compared to the average of 9 days.

Confidence in accuracy of forecast: temperature 80% / rainfall 60% (given the variable nature of October rainfall, heavy rain might remain offshore ending up with lower rainfall totals)

November is expected to be around average with some rain events although it looks like it may dry up by the end of the month as a storm track sets up further north than usual.

Mean monthly temperatures are expected to be around average with falling daily high temperatures, with daily highs decreasing from 23°C to 19°C over the course of the month, exceeding 26°C or dropping below 16°C only one day in ten. Daily low temperatures range from 12°C to 18°C.

The monthly rainfall total is expected to be slightly below average especially towards the end of the month. Around 10 days of rain are expected compared to the average 13 days.

Confidence in accuracy of forecast: temperature 80% / rainfall 70% (difficult to say when and if the drying trend will really set up given a set of unusual weather conditions being forecasted)

December is expected to be warmer and possibly much drier than average with mostly partly cloudy skies becoming cloudier at times and with rainy events.

Mean monthly temperatures are expected to be around 0.5°C to 1.0°C above average with steady daily high temperatures of between 16°C - 19°C exceeding 22°C or dropping below 14°C only one day in ten. Daily low temperatures range from 10°C to 12°C, falling below 8°C or exceeding 16°C only one day in ten.

The monthly rainfall total is expected to be well below the average of 107.7mm. Around 8 days of rain are expected compared to the average of 16 days.

Confidence in accuracy of forecast: temperature 60% (some models are indicating average temperatures) / rainfall 80%

The remaining winter months of January and February are looking warmer and much drier than average given that a storm track is likely to set further north than usual. March is looking average as the cold air locked up towards the north may spill southwards in order to balance out the increasingly warmer air to the south as the overhead sun marches northwards.

Mean monthly temperature anomalies
September – somewhat above average
October – slightly above average
November – average
December – slightly above average
January – above average
February – above average
March – average
 

Total monthly rainfall anomalies
September – average or below average
October – slightly wetter than average
November – slightly drier than average
December – well below average
January – well below average
February – well below average
March – average
 

Rain Days
September – 5
October – 8
November – 10
December – 8
January – 9
February – 9
March – 9